There Are 4 Types of Housing Markets Right Now. Which One Are You In?
If you're buying or selling in Baltimore, you've probably heard conflicting advice. One friend says wait, another says now is the time. The reason is that there isn't one housing market anymore. As Ryan Serhant, CEO of SERHANT, put it: "There is no longer a housing market . . . There are four Americas."
Those four markets are playing out in Baltimore too, from Locust Point and Federal Hill to Canton, Fells Point and beyond. Here is what each looks like and what it means for you.
1. Cash Buyers: About 1 in 4 Buyers Skip the Mortgage
Nationally, 26% of existing home sales this summer were all-cash, according to the National Association of Realtors. Many of these buyers are homeowners using equity from a previous sale. Realtor.com data shows cash buyers cluster at the very top and very bottom of the market by price.
For Baltimore buyers: With no financing contingency, a cash offer stands out, and it can mean a faster close and more room to negotiate. That helps in competitive neighborhoods and on well-priced row homes.
For Baltimore sellers: Cash brings less risk of a deal falling apart, but the certainty can come with a lower price. Compare the full picture before treating it as the best offer.
2. Financed Buyers: Rates Aren't Helping, but Sellers Are
Mortgage rates aren't expected to fall soon. Fannie Mae data shows nearly half of experts raised their long-term rate forecast this year, which is hard on first-time buyers. There is a workaround. Redfin data shows almost half of May sales included a seller concession such as a rate buydown or closing-cost credit.
For buyers: Stop waiting for rates to drop. If the monthly payment works today, negotiate a concession instead of waiting.
For sellers: Expect that conversation, and build concessions into your pricing strategy from the start. It may be what gets the deal done.
3. Rate-Locked Homeowners: Most Are Below 5%
About 2 in 3 homeowners have a mortgage rate under 5%, according to FHFA data. Moving means giving that up, so many stay put. Fannie Mae data suggests experts expect the lock-in to last another 3–5 years, which keeps fewer homes coming to market.
For buyers: The owners who do list usually have a real reason to move, so they are often more flexible and motivated.
For sellers: Run the numbers on what your equity buys before ruling out a move. If you have an FHA or VA loan, ask whether it can be made assumable. It's rare, but it is a real selling point.
4. Builders: More Willing to Negotiate Than You Think
Census data shows builders are sitting on a large inventory of unsold new homes, about 10 months' worth at the current pace, versus the normal 4–6 months. That pushes them toward price cuts and rate buydowns. In Baltimore, that can matter if you are considering new construction and townhome communities in and around the city.
For buyers: This is where the deals are. Bring your own agent and compare the full incentive package, not just the price.
For sellers: Compete on what builders can't offer: mature landscaping, an established neighborhood, and a home that's ready now, not in eight months. In Baltimore, add historic character such as exposed brick, hardwood floors and walkable streets.
The Bottom Line
Four markets are running at once, and the right move in one can be the wrong move in another. Let's figure out which one you're in and build your next move from there.
Ready to talk strategy? Contact Alison Hudler and Hudler Homes of Compass.
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